What does a wise person do? He takes more interest in the ideas that prove to him that he is wrong. Ultimately, the goal is to reach the right ideas — to make the right beliefs based on reality — to stick to the facts — not entirely to opinions.
When we load ourselves with too much information, a lot of unnecessary information also comes with that. Even computers start acting buggy when you install unnecessary applications — as they consume resources in the background. But you can surely get rid of those resources that are constantly trying to bombard you with information. Even if you spend your whole life, there will still be tons of information left for you to consume.
Back in the day, information was not a big issue. But today, you need to pay more attention to what information you are consuming and from which source. When we connect them in a particular sequence such that they appeal to our senses and mind, a story is formed.
Although, these days directors are using open-endings. To counteract this overconfidence, you need to take a more skeptical stance , adding even a little pessimism to the projections.
At the other extreme, there are situations that lead people to follow the opinions and decisions of the majority, no matter how rational that position is. It's the so-called social proof. Marketing explores this bias of human behavior, which has been rooted since the origins of our species. Rolf Dobelli presents here are two different pitfalls that can lead us to stick to a decision or idea that simply cannot stand: the fallacy of sunk cost and the bias of confirmation.
When the scenario, conditions, or even motivations change, an ongoing action may no longer make sense. Even so, we may be led to continue with it. Because we resort to the sunk cost fallacy, whereby, since we have already invested time and resources so far, we have to go all the way. This is a justification we have adopted for not admitting that we've ' changed our mind ', that is, that our previous idea was wrong. In a rational decision, it doesn't matter what happened in the past.
It's worth the perspective of the present in relation to the future. It's this way of thinking that we should seek to avoid being victims of this trap. From ideas conceived by ourselves or others , if we begin to feed only on arguments that confirm them, categorically ignoring or rejecting contrary arguments, we are appealing to the confirmation bias. It isn't difficult to realize that soon we will cling to constructions devoid of logic, just to confirm that original idea.
Two forces that can also get us off the path of rationality: gratitude and fear. Gratitude can make us prisoners of reciprocity, while fear tends to manifest itself through the bias of authority. Rolf Dobelli says that this is another behavior that is rooted in humans and that is much exploited by marketing.
We have a tendency to feel guilty when we are indebted to someone. Whenever a person does us a favor, we feel obligated to return it. This can lead us to do things that we wouldn't objectively do simply so that we don't have to carry the burden of being in debt to anyone. The solution to escape this circle is to refuse unsolicited favors. We have always been educated to respect hierarchies and authorities and this has been essential to organized life in society. What degree of influence do they really have?
Is there actually a link between these two factors? How do we know that one causes the other? How do we know they are linked at all? What are the limits of this piece of information? Is it causing me to look at other things favourably or unfavourably? If I try and evaluate from an outside view, what are all the possible outcomes for this situation? What are the associated risks with each path? What incentives is this person subject to? Is there a downside if the prediction is wrong? How good is his success rate?
Am I dealing with a subset here? Am I trying to fit a plausible story to the situation? What if I present this situation in the opposite way? How does that change my perception? Am I just trying to act here? What if I just wait? Will I be able to better assess my options? Am I avoiding a particular path because the consequences are bad, but less bad than inaction? What bluntly honest friends, or enemies, could I ask for an honest assessment of strengths and weaknesses?
Will this lead to long-term or short-term happiness? Would this lead to something guaranteed to be negative? What would be the ideal sample? Am I transferring qualities between things that are unrelated? Am I shooting the messenger? Is the sample size enough to make a conclusion about luck vs.
Are there a large number of players here? Likely to cause random winners. Can I disprove my conclusion? Am I trying to reinterpret things to maintain a previous attitude or belief? Am I making an impulsive decision right now?
Am I playing the long game or short game? Am I making this decision fresh? Am I well-rested and well-fed? Do I have a connection to this in some way? Does the average mean anything in this situation? What is the actual underlying distribution? Are financial incentives crowding my judgement? Are they crowding other incentives for the people involved here? What is being said here? Is it actually useful? How are these factors grouped? How has it changed? Have the groups been rearranged to manipulate the averages?
What information is actually useful here? Am I falsely increasing my confidence levels because of additional, but useless information? Am I overvaluing parts of this because I put effort into them? What is the value of the result, discounting the process and effort put in? Is this sample size sufficient to draw conclusions? Or am I in fact extrapolating too far from a small sample?
What expectations am I holding about this situation? Are they appropriate? What is the worst-case scenario? Am I evaluating this situation rationally? Or using intuition?
Could this information apply to anyone? Are there any negatives, or are they all positive traits? Is this the best use of my time? Are my feelings about this subject, topic, or my current feelings contributing to my evaluation? Am I being critical with myself? How would I regard these internal observations if they were coming from someone else? Am I just trying to keep options open? What should I focus on not pursuing? Am I overvaluing this option because of the novelty? What is the source of this argument or opinion?
What is the next best alternative to this option? Am I avoiding an option out of fear or jealousy of someone or something outdoing me? Or because I heard it more recently? Am I overvaluing my own ideas? Who can give me an objective opinion?
Have I put us in a position to guard against negative Black Swans? And take advantage of positive Black Swans? Am I within my circle of competence? Why is this? Whoever spent twice the time collecting berries earned double the amount. Whoever hunted two mammoths instead of one could eat for twice as long. In the Stone Age, people rarely came across exponential growth. Today, things are different. The halo effect occurs when a single aspect dazzles us and affects how we see the full picture.
The psychologist Edward Lee Thorndike concluded that a single quality e. If a message is communicated in different ways, it will also be received in different ways.
In new or shaky circumstances, we feel compelled to do something, anything Afterward we feel better, even if we have made things worse by acting too quickly or too often. We should be careful to get out of an experience only the wisdom that is in it—and stop there; lest we be like the cat that sits down on a hot stove-lid. She will never sit down on a hot-stove lid again—and that is well; but also she will never sit down on a cold one anymore. Science calls this phenomenon hyperbolic discounting.
When justifying your behavior, you encounter more tolerance and helpfulness. It seems to matter very little if your excuse is good or not. Decision fatigue is perilous: As a consumer, you become more susceptible to advertising messages and impulse buys. As a decision maker, you are more prone to erotic seduction. Willpower is like a battery. After a while, it runs out and needs to be recharged. How do you do this? By taking a break, relaxing, and eating something. When people do something for well-meaning, non-monetary reasons, payments throw a wrench into the works.
Financial reward erodes any other motivations. Verbal expression is the mirror of the mind. Clear thoughts become clear statements, whereas ambiguous ideas transform into vacant ramblings.
The trouble is that, in many cases, we lack very lucid thoughts. Therefore, if you have nothing to say, say nothing.
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